FXStreet (Bali) - The Kiwi is expanding its startling recovery off a failed sub 0.77 breakout back on Nov 7th, with an ongoing USD long squeeze assisting the antipodean currency on its firm tone.

An upbeat New Zealand retail sales (QoQ) report today, which came in at 1.5% in Q3, above 0.85% exp, adds to a positive run of data, coupled with the latest 2015 cash payouts forecasts for NZ farmers by Fonterra (well above expectations), and a broadly-weaker USD, are all factors - especially the latter - supporting improved sentiment towards NZDs. However, with key 0.7950-60 being tested, ahead of 0.80 psychological level, mid-term NZD bears may start to emerge to test counter-trend trader's nerves, with the remarkable correction in NZD potentially running a 5th a and final wave.

Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts, notes: "If/when the down trend resumes and the Kiwi does turn lower, then below 0.7800, look for a bids at 0.7760 (200 HMA) and eventually a run to 0.7700. A break below 0.7700 (50% of 0.6560/0.8838) would see a retest of the trend low at 0.7660. Under this, there are minor support at 0.7625 and at 0.7600, but not an awful lot to prop it up ahead of 0.7530 (100 Month MA) and then 0.7435 (61.8% of 0.6560/0.8838)."

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