Forex: USD/INR – RBI rate call may spur further downside momentum (Barcelona) - The Reserve Bank of India publised on Monday its macro-economic outlook and they appear to be optimistic on growth, yet rising prices wary. The RBI’s estimates growth at 8.5%, marginally higher from previous expectations at 8.4%. The central bank pointed inflation was still above its comfort zone, and that soaring food price is cause for concern.

Despite all that, India’s central bank may raise interest rates for a sixth time YTD on Tuesday, elevating the cash rate to 6.25%. Foreign institutional investment topped $25 billion this year alone, leading to a solid rise in the Indian Rupee to a two-year high against the USD. In this context, “USD/INR outlook remains intact: pair is moving in a tight consolidative range with a slightly bullish tone, supported by a short term ascendant trend line coming from 43.83 low” said Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at

Valeria concluded her analysis saying: “Currently around 44.10, barely below current price; break of this last should signal a downside continuation rally towards 43.80 monthly low, followed later by 43.40, levels not seen since August 2008; resistances today, are located at 44.45, 44.65 and 44.90”.