The latest Reuters poll of 32 analysts revealed on Friday, a majority of them believe that the coronavirus epidemic will shave up to 0.2 percentage points off Japan’s 2020 GDP growth rate, as it will have a negative impact on the country’s exports, factories and tourism.
Key Findings:
“Asked how much the virus outbreak could cut Japan’s economy this calendar year, 17 of 32 analysts said 0.1-0.2 percentage points and seven said less than 0.1 percentage point.
For the current fiscal year ending in March, analysts expect Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 0.8% with last year’s sales tax hike seen triggering a contraction in growth in October-December.
Growth is likely to slow to 0.5% in the fiscal year beginning in April
70% predict the BOJ’s next policy move would be to whittle down its massive stimulus program, largely unchanged from the previous month’s survey.
A majority of economists also expected any such move to happen sometime in 2022 or later. Those who expect the central bank’s next move to be an additional easing stood at 30%.
20 of 39 economists don’t expect the BOJ to review its policy, while 19 said the central bank will. Among those who selected “yes”, more than half predicted it could be by the first half of 2021 and 42% said it would be sometime in 2020 or later.”
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