Analysts at TD Securities suggest that based on their models, and following dire export/import PMIs in recent months, they expect China’s imports and exports to slow sharply, with imports down to 12.3%/y in Nov (consensus 17.8% y/y) from 20.1% y/y in Oct and exports down to 10.3%/y in Nov (consensus 12.6% y/y) from 26.3% y/y in Oct.
“We expect the trade surplus to increase to $54.1bn in Nov from $34.0bn in Oct. There are quirky seasonals at play, so we chose to replicate past years. Soon enough, however, we'll have Chinese New Year distortions, next year falling over 5-6 Feb 2019. As ever the trade surplus with the US will be closely watched.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.