China GDP growth to be down 6.6% y/y in Q1-2018? - Standard Chartered


Analysts at Standard Chartered Global Research explained that their China nowcasting model puts GDP growth at 6.6% y/y in Q1-2018, down from 6.8% in Q4-2017. 

Key Quotes:

"Our model shows that growth softened in Q1 despite a strong performance at the turn of the year, largely driven by Lunar New Year (LNY) distortion. 

Our estimate is based on 13 monthly time series covering prices, the financial sector, trade, interest rates and surveys 

The common factor produced by our model, which summaries the information available in all time series during Q1-2017 to Q1-2018, indicates a slight drop in the GDP growth rate for Q1-2018.

The official manufacturing PMI rebounded in March to 51.5 from 50.3 in February, reflecting a recovery in real activity after the Lunar New Year. 

However, average PMI readings in Q1-2018 appear to have been weaker than in Q4-2017, suggesting solid but softer growth at the beginning of the year. CPI inflation edged up to 2.1% y/y in Q1 from 1.8% in Q4-2017, mainly due to a return of food inflation. PPI inflation eased to 3.7% y/y in Q1 from 5.9% in Q4-2017 largely due to a high base. Trade performance remained solid in the first quarter. 

Export and import growth accelerated to 14.0% y/y and 18.9% y/y in Q1, respectively. Credit growth slowed significantly as the government has identified deleveraging as a top priority. While loan growth remained high at 12.8% y/y in March, total social financing growth fell further to 10.5% y/y from 11.2% in February. Our nowcasting result echoes our view that Q1 GDP likely moderated from Q4-2017."

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD leaning lower as the USD gains ground

EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.10, as the US dollar gradually advances. Two White House advisers expressed contradicting accounts of US-Sino trade talks, causing confusion. Germany refrained from adding fiscal stimulus.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD dives below 1.25 as EU pours cold water on Brexit hopes

GBP/USD is falling 1.25, over 100 pips off from the two-month highs of 1.2582 as EU officials cast doubts about the seriousness of the new UK proposals on Brexit. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY Forecast: A breakout of 108.50 should put the 109.30 area on the radar

The USD/JPY is seeing some corrective downside after recent tops and failure at the 108.50 region, which continues to cap occasional bullish attempts for the time being.

USD/JPY News

Gold climbs further beyond $1500 mark, lacks follow-through

Gold edged higher for the second consecutive session on Friday, albeit remained well within a familiar trading range held over the past two weeks or so.

Gold News

Top 3 price prediction Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum: Ethereum points to the Moon as Bitcoin takes a break

ETH/USD exceeds $220 and is bidding to lead the market. Bitcoin sets a bear trap and recaptures $10,000. XRP stalls between technical levels and fails to consolidate $0.30.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures