Canadian employment: To worst is yet to come – RBC


Data released on Thursday, showed that employment in Canada plunged 1.01 million in March. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets forecast the unemployment rate will average 14% during the second quarter. 

Key Quotes: 

“The 1 million drop in jobs in March reported this morning makes every other month-over-month change in the labour force survey data before look like a rounding error. The largest prior one-month declining dating back to 1976 was a 125 thousand decline. The job losses in one month were more than twice the total job losses in the 2008/09 global financial crisis. But the April decline could already be multiples of this March drop, given another almost 3 million people have reportedly applied for employment-loss benefits since the mid-March labour force survey reference period.”

Our latest forecasts assume that the unemployment rate will average 14 ½% in the second quarter, double March’s 7.8% rate. That might be too high given the smaller-than-assumed increase in March, but only if a large share of layoffs continue to be non-temporary, and if workers drop out of the labour market rather than being technically counted as unemployed. The key to gauging the pace at which the economy can bounce back from the current downturn still depends on the extent to which employer-employee relationships can be maintained, and households and businesses can bridge the gap until current social distancing policies can be eased.”

“An unprecedented labour market shock is also being met by an unprecedented increase in government support for households and businesses – both in Canada and abroad. (...) These programs could distort some labour market statistics in the near-term, but provide important offsets to households to get through a period of unprecedented economic weakness.”
 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Stellar performance refreshes 18-week top above 0.6800, RBA eyed

Having dominated the markets at the week’s start, AUD/USD bulls keep the reins around 0.6810, high of 0.6814, at the beginning of Tuesday’s Asian session. RBA is widely anticipated to keep the current monetary policy unchanged.

AUD/USD News

USD/JPY looks for a firm direction above 107.00 with eyes on US civil unrest

USD/JPY fails to extend the previous day’s losses amid fresh challenges to risk. The yen pair dropped the previous day amid broad US dollar weakness. A lack of data from Japan keeps traders focused on the geopolitical issues for fresh impulse.

USD/JPY News

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Pointing beyond the Moon

XRP remains on the sidelines, although it could join the bullish run. The crypto market is starting to remind us of times gone by, with dazzling rises across the crypto board that draw the public's attention.

Read more

Gold: Bulls cheer immediate rising channel, aim for $1,753

Gold prices print four-day winning streak to probe $1,740. The yellow metal portrays a short-term bullish chart formation on the hourly chart while also being above 200-HMA. The buyers are likely to keep the reins, which in turn could push the quote towards the said channel’s upper line, near $1,753.00.

Gold News

WTI trading near session’s lows around $34.80 a barrel

Crude oil is trading near session’s lows as WTI is trading above the main SMAs on the four-hour chart. However, as the black gold remains fragile in a dominant downtrend, it remains to be seen if WTI can regain the 36.00 resistance. 

Oil News

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures