Canada: Headline CPI likely to firm to 1.9% in March - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Canadian headline CPI to firm to 1.9% y/y in March, reflecting a second consecutive 0.7% m/m increase.

Key Quotes

“Gasoline prices should lend a substantial boost, with retail prices posting an 11% increase during the month, but one-off factors will also have a significant impact. We are focused on travel services, telephone/internet services, airfares, and rents which on balance point to the upside for March CPI.”

“Our March forecast is consistent with Q1 CPI at 1.6% y/y vs the BoC’s estimate of 1.7%, although the rapid recovery in gasoline prices has put the CPI profile on a much higher trajectory, such that we now see CPI holding at or slightly above 2% for most of 2019.”

“For core CPI, we expect the average of the BoC's preferred measures to remain stable at 1.83% y/y but see upside risk to CPI-trim and median on favourable base effects. CPI-trim and CPI-median rose by 0.02% and 0.08% on the month, respectively, in March 2018 and both series have averaged 0.2% m/m over the last three months. This provides a low hurdle for either to push higher, although we are not as upbeat on CPI-common due to a tighter correlation to the output gap which has recently widened.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trims early gains, dangerously close to 1.1200

The positive tone of the pair fades in the American afternoon as demand for the dollar resumes, despite softer-than-expected US data. All eyes on the Fed this week.


GBP/USD extends decline, pierces 1.2550

Despite moving in slow-motion, GBP/USD decline is continuous with the pair trading at levels last seen in January, amid political uncertainty weighing on Sterling.


USD/JPY remains directionless above mid-108s on Monday

The USD/JPY pair is struggling to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday as the slightly upbeat market sentiment doesn't allow the safe-haven JPY to gather strength.


Gold remains on track to close with small losses below $1340

The XAU/USD pair, which closed higher on the weekly chart for the fourth straight time last week, is fluctuating in a relatively tight range on Monday amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers that had a lasting impact on the greenback's market valuation or the risk perception.

Gold News

Gold: Signs of bullish exhaustion ahead of the Fed

Gold's rally seems to have run its course with signs of bullish exhaustion emerging on technical charts ahead of Wednesday's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) rate decision.

Read more