"We expect CPI to inch higher to 2.4% in October on y/y tailwinds from energy and food prices," TD Securities analysts said previewing this week's macroeconomic data releases from Canada.
Key quotes
"Airfares have fully unwound their previous jump and therefore pose less risk to the figure this month, though the methodology changes still make the figure uncertain. Most of the attention will be on the core measures this month, as the report marks the last inflation print ahead of the December BoC meeting. Average BoC core ticked back to 2.0% and there is risk for a rebound back to 2.1%, raising odds of multiple rate hikes in the next three meetings. However, headline inflation is still the Bank’s main target, and the latest oil rout leaves inflation tracking below the BoC’s projections at 2.0% in Q4 vs 2.3%."
"Retail sales are expected to come in unchanged for September as a pullback in motor vehicle sales offsets a modest increase in the core. Motor vehicles are poised for their third decline in the last four months as consumers grapple with higher debt costs and prioritize spending elsewhere."
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