Canada: Consumption spending set for a sharp rebound in Q3 – NFB


Data released on Friday showed retail sales rose in Canada for the fifth month in a row in September, climbing by 1.1% above the 0.2% of market consensus. National Bank of Canada analyst Jocelyn Paquet points out that following September’s gains, spending stood above pre-crisis levels in nine of the 11 retail sub-sectors covered.

Key Quotes:

“The September retail sales report came in much stronger than expected. Not only was the headline number significantly better than what analysts had anticipated, but gains were also widespread across categories.”

“Following September’s gains, spending stood above pre-crisis levels in 9 of the 11 retail sub-sectors covered.”

“Looking at quarterly data, sales volumes soared 117.7% in annualized terms in Q3, marking the steepest expansion on records. This should translate into a healthy contribution to growth from household spending on goods in the quarter.”

“It remains to be seen if consumer spending will be sustained in the fourth quarter (and beyond) given rising caseloads and government-mandated closure of non-essential businesses in several provinces.”

“In real terms, Canada’s retail sales advanced 1.1%. Statistics Canada’s early estimate for October nominal sales was flat (+0.0%).”

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