Canada: Another 25k jobs gain in October? – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canada’s labour market to continue its hot streak with the creation of another 25k jobs in October, which should allow the unemployment rate to slip back to the post-crisis low of 5.4%.

Key Quotes

“With over 130k jobs created in the last two months, we would typically look for some giveback but expect hiring for the federal election to offset any weakness. Public administration employment has risen by 32k on average during the month of the last three federal elections, although a 21k increase in PA employment over the last four months suggests we could see more modest gains this cycle due to wider usage of early voting.”

“Looking past the election-related hiring we expect a modest unwind of recent gains, with health care and education expected to give back a portion of the 70k jobs created over the last two months. We also expect a slight improvement in earnings which should push wage growth to 4.4% y/y on muted base effects.”

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