Danske Bank analysts point out that the Brexit negotiations got back on track after Irish PM Varadkar and UK PM Johnson met.
“We have not received many details yet (probably because neither side wants to risk jeopardising the fragile negotiations) but the most difficult part of the negotiation is customs, so Varadkar and Johnson may have found a way forward here.”
“The problem is that PM Johnson's potential majority in the House of Commons is also very fragile and he cannot afford to lose support from DUP and the group of hard Brexiteers within his own party. This means that one should not get hopes too high yet, and our base case remains another extension followed by snap election but the coming days are going to be extremely important.”
“Today, UK Brexit Secretary Barclay and EU Chief negotiator Barnier meet at 09.30 CET followed by a briefing to the EU ambassador. EU has set a deadline today to reach an agreement before the EU summit next week but this is probably a soft deadline so a deal can be reached at a later stage (also the EU still has an possibility to call an extraordinary EU summit to ratify an agreement).”
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