The RBNZ announced that it would conduct large-scale asset purchases of New Zealand Government bonds (‘quantitative easing’, or ‘QE’), following similar moves by global central banks last week.
Analysts at ANZ Bank explain
- The RBNZ will purchase $30bn of NZGBs with a range of maturities across the yield curve over the next 12 months, with purchases starting this week.
- This package is huge. Our analysis last week flagged the need for purchases of $15-20bn per annum, if not more, and this announcement is even larger with that. Our expectations were at the top end of market expectations, so we expect this package to have a significant impact.
- QE will help support the economy and soothe markets that have been dysfunctional. We believe this package will have an immediate and significant impact on the local bond market, especially with NZDM set to issue NZGBs at a $20bn annualised pace in Q2. There will be beneficial knock-ons across the credit spectrum.
- More QE, liquidity measures and market intervention may yet be needed. Of note, the RBNZ has said they will adjust the size and nature of the program as required. We also see a case for easing the counter-cyclical capital buffer to help facilitate the provision of credit.
- Next we expect another broad fiscal response; last week’s package was only the first tranche. The RBNZ’s move today paves the way for more government spending, by helping soak up the looming supply of bonds.
FX implications
The negative economic implications of the coronavirus outbreak have continued to intensify and a flight to cash and liquidity has pulled in a bid in the US dollar, weighing on NZD/USD. It is presumed that QE will cushion rather than stimulate and considering NZ's reliance on trade and tourism, the bird will likely remain on the backfoot.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remained bid above 0.6500
AUD/USD extended further its bullish performance, advancing for the fourth session in a row on Thursday, although a sustainable breakout of the key 200-day SMA at 0.6526 still remain elusive.
EUR/USD faces a minor resistance near at 1.0750
EUR/USD quickly left behind Wednesday’s small downtick and resumed its uptrend north of 1.0700 the figure, always on the back of the persistent sell-off in the US Dollar ahead of key PCE data on Friday.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
Bitcoin price continues to get rejected from $65K resistance as SEC delays decision on spot BTC ETF options
Bitcoin (BTC) price has markets in disarray, provoking a broader market crash as it slumped to the $62,000 range on Thursday. Meanwhile, reverberations from spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to influence the market.
US economy: slower growth with stronger inflation
The dollar strengthened, and stocks fell after statistical data from the US. The focus was on the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. Annualised quarterly growth came in at just 1.6%, down from the 2.5% and 3.4% previously forecast.