NZD/USD has been recovering in Asia while the Aussie awaits the RBA and early birds run the price higher in perhaps expectations of a dovish statement, with a classic case of buy the rumour and sell the fact scenario. The Kiwi traditionally tracking the Aussie, despite a dovish outlook recently coming from the NZ Finmin who warns that RBNZ OCR will likely go down.
This week is a big one and could be the prelude to the FOMC in Dec with a fist-full of key events, including the RBA today, but not forgetting the Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the US week.
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NZD/USD's 200 SMA on the hourly at 0.6751 offers a pivotal point while the price remains in a tight consolidation range on the shorter time frames. However, there remains a bearish bias below the 200 DMA at 0.7003 for the 1-3 week outlook and beyond there on the wide targets the 0.76 key resistance level.
A near term breakout of 0.6897 could be a catalyst to bring this into focus again, but the bias brings in the key 0.6620 support that guards a continuation of the downside.
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