Australia is set to report its April employment figures on Thursday, May 19 at 01:30 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers at six major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.

Australia is expected to have added 30K positions in the month, while the unemployment rate is foreseen down to 3.9% from the current 4%.

ANZ

“A move in unemployment below 4% is likely after the March data just rounded up to 4%. This will underscore how tight the labour market is, supporting our expectation that the acceleration in wages growth is really only just underway. And once higher wages growth is established, it typically takes a lot of rate hikes to bring it back down. This sets the backdrop for our continued expectation that a cash rate of 3%+ will ultimately be required.”

Westpac

“Our current forecast for employment in the April Labour Force Survey is +32K which we estimate to be a 0.3% rise in original (not seasonally adjusted) terms. We see the unemployment rate rounding down to 3.9%.”

TDS

“After the disruption from the floods, we think the April employment report is going to be robust (40K), which should reinforce our call for a 40bps hike at the June meeting.”

ING

“April unemployment in Australia is on track to reach its lowest-ever rate of 3.9%, as the number of unemployed people in the labour force is expected to dip slightly for a third consecutive month, while higher wages should also help deliver a mild uptick in total employment. This tightness in the labour market, coupled with comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia that their regional surveys are reporting higher wages growth, leads us to expect the wage price index growth rate for 1Q22 to come in close to 3% – in line with the RBA’s previous benchmark required for ‘sustained’ inflation. And that could set us up for another rate hike as soon as June.”

SocGen

“We expect the pace of increase in employment will pick up again in April, from 1.6% to 3.2% in terms of annualized growth, suggesting continued strength in the labour market recovery. We expect the unemployment rate to fall to a record-low level of below 4.0%, and we see the participation rate rising a little to reach a new record-high level, both of which would offer further proof of the extraordinary tightness of the current labour market conditions. Monthly hours worked would also rebound from the flood-driven dip in March.”

Citibank

“Australia April Labor Force Survey: Citi employment forecast; 38KK, Citi unemployment rate forecast; 3.9%, Previous; 4.0%, Citi participation rate forecast; 66.5%, Previous; 66.4%. The risk to the forecast is for a lower unemployment rate, possibly higher employment growth, and a lower participation rate than forecast. Overall, we expect this will put further pressure on the RBA to persist with its tightening cycle.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news Join Telegram

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD recovers modestly, trades above 1.0400

EUR/USD recovers modestly, trades above 1.0400

EUR/USD has managed to stage a modest rebound in the American session and climbed above 1.0400. Despite the risk-averse market environment, falling US Treasury bond yields after the latest inflation data seem to be limiting the greenback's gains for the time being.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD rises above 1.2150 as dollar retreats

GBP/USD rises above 1.2150 as dollar retreats

Gold has gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.2150. With the US T-bond yields falling sharply on soft inflation data, the US Dollar Index turned south and erased a large portion of its daily gains, helping GBP/USD push higher.

GBP/USD News

Gold rebounds toward $1,820 on falling yields

Gold rebounds toward $1,820 on falling yields

Gold has turned north and advanced to the $1,820 area after having dropped toward $1,800 earlier in the day. The benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield is down more than 2% on the day near 3% after the latest US data, fueling XAU/USD's upside.

Gold News

Breaking: Ethereum price tanks below $1,000

Breaking: Ethereum price tanks below $1,000

Ethereum price has breached a critical area of support over the past few hours, dipping below $1,000. The Fibonacci retracement indicator shows that ETH lacks any significant support levels that could keep prices at bay.

Read more

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

FXStreet Premium users exceed expectations

Tap into our 20 years Forex trading experience and get ahead of the markets. Maximize our actionable content, be part of our community, and chat with our experts. Join FXStreet Premium today!

BECOME PREMIUM

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures