Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, points out that the Australia’s unemployment rate ended 2018 at 5%, close to full employment with the employment data rising by +22k (TD +30k, mkt +18k) via part-time (+25k).
“The participation rate eased a tick to 65.6%.”
“More importantly for the RBA and wage pressures, the underutilisation ratio eased back to the low of 13.3%, after starting 2018 at 14.2%.”
“Over 2018, 269k jobs were created, with 60% in full-time employment. The unemployment rate eased from 5.6% to 5.0% while the participation rate fluctuated tightly around 65.6%.”
“The RBA in November expected the unemployment rate to be around 5% through 2019, before declining to 4¾% over 2020. We don't expect a change to these projections at the February 8 Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP).”
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