Australia: Economic growth set to pick up in H2 2019 – ANZ


According to ANZ analysts, Australia’s economic growth is set to pick up in H2 2019, with the low point likely to have been the Q2 2019.

Key Quotes

“Stimulus from interest rate cuts (both actual and forecast) and tax cuts will be key. Without it growth would have been materially lower.”

“We see the prospect of a bond market rally into the end of the year due to domestic and global policy support. We aren’t expecting new lows in yields, however. For 2020, our expectation is that US yields move higher and the yield curve steepens, as the US comes through its mid-cycle slowdown. For Australia, there will be some renewed outperformance by the 10Y bond, given our expectation for the RBA. But we doubt this will be enough to drive the 10Y ACGB/UST spread through its recent historical low. That is, unless the RBA decides to implement quantitative easing (QE). That is not our central scenario, but if QE was implemented, the 10Y ACGB/UST spread would likely move below -100bp (from around -60bps currently).”

“Of more immediate importance is the upcoming employment report, which will be crucial for the RBA’s October monetary policy decision. If it as soft as we expect, an October rate cut seems more likely than not.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hits fresh weekly highs, nears 1.0900

The greenback is in trouble as government bond yields keep falling to record lows spurring gears of recession. Risk-off exacerbated by coronavirus spreading worldwide.

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY pierces 110.00 as fear rules

Wall Street is sharply down for a second consecutive day while US Treasury yields stand at record lows, reflecting investors concerns and backing yen gains.

USD/JPY News

Dollar domination set to continue, with or without coronavirus fears

The coronavirus-related fall in US bond yields has been weighing on the US dollar. Nevertheless – and despite worries coming from Markit's PMIs – the greenback is set to gain more ground.

Read more

Gold: Pares early losses, still in the red below $1650 level

Gold extended previous day's intraday retracement slide from multi-year tops and witnessed some follow-through long-unwinding trade on Tuesday.

Gold News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures