AUD/USD looks like it could break lower on the 1-hour chart post FOMC but the support looks firm


  • AUD/USD  is now trading just under flat after the FOMC statement and press conference.
  • The price has printed below the hourly chart trendline and could continue to fall.

Fundamental backdrop

The Fed statement didn't really give us much to be honest but the USD bears could be disappointed that there has been no indication of more action from the Fed. One main takeaway from the developments at the bank is that some FOMC members do not see rate rising till 2023. This could be longer than some analysts had been anticipating. This could be due to the fact that the Fed stated they will not raise rates until full employment is reached. There were no specifics in terms of what percentage that is. The Fed used to have an inflation target of 2% and now they have explained that they are willing to accept an overshoot. 

AUD/USD 1-hour chart

The price has moved lower recently but the area in which the trendline and support level meet could be strong in the short term. A move higher will only be taken seriously if the double top at 0.7340 is broken. The market has been making higher highs and higher lows but the previous wave low was been broken but only slightly.

Both MACD and Relative Strength Index indicators are in a bearish position right now. Having said that, the Relative Strength Index has produced a bullish failure swing. This is when the price makes a higher low but the indicator makes a lower low. This is normally a bullish sign. 

Something tells me the market will need the dust to settle before deciding on an underlying direction. The Fed had the opportunity to let the public know if more stimulus was coming. Instead, they once again asked for more fiscal stimulus from the government. This could be bullish for the greenback.

AUD/USD

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