- AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7215 at the tie of writing, down from the highs of 0.7274 although has recently recovered from the European lows of 0.7195 traded from pressures in lower metals and global stock prices.
- Its all eyes on nonfarm payrolls and ears to the ground for global trade headlines and various geopolitical news.
AUD/USD has travelled from 0.7393 early Dec highs within a descending channel, underperforming as commodity currencies lose out to the big dollar rising since Nov lows in the DXY. Trade wars have continued to be a theme, despite the handshake cease-fire between Chin and the US as investors prefer to stay o the side of caution while the 90 day's plays out. Global growth concerns have emerged from under the carpet which weighs on the stocks markets and high beta-FX such as the antipodeans.
"Global growth fears and trade pessimism have returned to the market as the yield curve aggressively flattens, and the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou threatens the trade truce. Indeed, copper prices have reverted closer to the range that would trigger additional CTA shorts, should prices fall to the $6033/t level, while recent short covering in the lead has been halted," analysts at TD Securities explained.
"Equity markets remain under heavy pressure, and this is keeping commodity-linked currencies on the defensive. AUDUSD has fallen to challenge the key 0.72 pivot. Near-term short positioning may be stretched we think there may be room to extend before the pair looks oversold. A close below that threshold could suggest a test of the October lows at 0.7020," the analysts at TD Securities noted.
Key data sound bites
AS far as data goes, the Aussie retailers reported a 0.3% lift in sales in October, in line with market expectations. It was a solid report overall but will not stem the dovish turn in the RBA expectations. AUD/USD broke 38.2 Fibo of 0.7021/0.7394 at 0.7251 with stops triggered below. "While sales growth is still not strong it's looking a touch better than it did mid-year, annual growth having lifted from 2.9% in June to 3.6% currently" analysts at Westpac argued.
Nonfarm payrolls
"FX likely to view payrolls with an asymmetric bias; USD has been stable despite aggressive Fed repricing so a payrolls beat should not impact the USD as much as a disappointment," analysts at TD Securities explained.
- The US initial jobless claims are expected to reach 224K in the week ending November 30.
AUD/USD levels
We have some minor support around 0.7190/7200 / (55-day MA at 0.719). The next support comes in at 0.7131 at S3. A break of 0.7100 opens 0.7021 2018 lows. Bulls need to get above 0.7280 and the confluence of the 23.6% Fibo of 2018 range and the 10-D SAM to target R1 at 0.7391. "The near-term uptrend at .7256 has been eroded to leave attention on the 55-day ma at 0.7191 and the .7165 13th November low. Failure here would suggest a retest of the 0.7022 recent low. We regard 0.7022 as an interim low. We have TD support at 0.6995 and below 0.6995/75 targets 0.6827 the 2016 low," analysts at Commerzbank explained.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD pressures as Fed officials hold firm on rate policy
The Australian Dollar is on the defensive against the US Dollar, as Friday’s Asian session commences. On Thursday, the antipodean clocked losses of 0.21% against its counterpart, driven by Fed officials emphasizing they’re in no rush to ease policy. The AUD/USD trades around 0.6419.
EUR/USD extends its downside below 1.0650 on hawkish Fed remarks
The EUR/USD extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday during the early Asian session. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials provide some support to the US Dollar.
Gold price edges higher on risk-off mood hawkish Fed signals
Gold prices advanced late in the North American session on Thursday, underpinned by heightened geopolitical risks involving Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish messages, triggering a jump in US Treasury yields, which boosted the Greenback.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: All eyes on BTC as CNN calls halving the ‘World Cup for Bitcoin’
Bitcoin price remains the focus of traders and investors ahead of the halving, which is an important event expected to kick off the next bull market. Amid conflicting forecasts from analysts, an international media site has lauded the halving and what it means for the industry.
Is the Biden administration trying to destroy the Dollar?
Confidence in Western financial markets has already been shaken enough by the 20% devaluation of the dollar over the last few years. But now the European Commission wants to hand Ukraine $300 billion seized from Russia.