Asia: Moderate growth slowdown to continue – ABN AMRO

Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO, expects Asia’s regional GDP growth to fall from an average 6.2% in 2018 in annual terms to 6% in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020.

Key Quotes

“We expect the slowdown in China, (accounting for around 50% of emerging Asian GDP) to remain gradual. While China’s economy shows more signs of a serious cooling in recent months, the authorities continue with taking all kinds of offsetting measures.”

“We assume China’s real GDP growth to fall from 6.6% in 2018 to 6.3% in 2019, the lowest level since 1990 (see for more background our China Outlook for 2019, Stimulus offsets trade risks). We expect growth in India – the region’s second largest economy – to remain solid at around 7.5% and India to maintain the status of fastest growing giant, even though India is facing some political uncertainty with elections due in April.”

“We expect growth in global bellwethers such as Hong Kong and Singapore to slow by around 1%-point compared to the annual average for 2018, reflecting the expected slowdown in global trade and in main export destinations (e.g. US, China). All in all, we expect emerging Asia to remain a key engine of global growth, even though growth is gradually coming down.”

 

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