- AMC stock is back as it rallies nearly 8% on Tuesday.
- Risk aversion is dead as Omicron fears evaporate.
- Risk assets rally strongly with Bitcoin back near $50,000.
AMC stock rallied nearly 8% on Tuesday as a long-awaited risk-on rally finally materialized. The threat of Omicron had dented all sectors and the meme stock space initially held up reasonably well before finally cracking. Sharp falls were seen across most names, and AMC was hit especially hard. The stock had been defending the $40 level but eventually cracked. AMC shares lost 16% last Wednesday after an 8% loss the previous day.
AMC chart, 15-minute
The chart above shows the extent of the decline for December, and that is ignoring the 8% loss on the final session in November. AMC was down nearly 30% for the week but has since recovered some ground.
AMC stock news
There is nothing especially newsworthy to report here. Rather this is just pure momentum. There were some large options trades on Tuesday that involved call buying but nothing too dramatic given that option buying, particularly call option buying, has been a major feature of meme stock surges this year.
AMC stock forecast
Usually, momentum does not fade away quite so quickly once it is established. AMC has had a sharp fall and this may be a dead cat bounce, but we expect it to stick around for a while longer. Momentum names can continue to rally even after the more mainline names slow. Retail traders are more attracted to momentum and tend to push it farther for longer. Despite an expected slowdown for the indices today, AMC should hold up relatively well in our view.
The reasoning involves the strong support that eventually stopped the losses. The yearly Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) stopped AMC in its tracks and provided some stability and set up the bounce. This is the yellow line in our chart. Now we have a serious issue to take out for AMC apes and that is the 200-day moving average at $31.52. Failure here is strongly negative. That is the mission for AMC apes or bulls, AMC stock needs to push back above there and then the next resistance is the series of old lows at $34.60. Failure at the 200-day and support from the VWAP will likely give way to a renewed bearish trend.
AMC daily chart
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