Big miss brewing on trade deficit

By: Adam Button

Chinese trade numbers this week were far from expected and that tends to spill over elsewhere. At the bottom of the hour, the US and Canada release trade balance numbers. Sorting through the Chinese data, an obvious skew isn't evident but overall global trade may be picking up. Chinese imports from the US were up 15% y/y and 9.2% y/y from Canada. Exports were also much stronger, rising 10.3% and 14.9%, respectively. Those should be reflected in other countries' data but accounting differences (or manipulation) can't be ruled out. Expectations are for a $41.1B deficit in the US and a 0.6B deficit in Canada but be prepared for a miss.