Forex Flash: No bailout request from Spain will force risk-off further into Monday – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - TD Securities analyst expect the German unemployment to rise 10K in September, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 6.8%. However, the bigger focus will be on the Spanish Cabinet approving the 2013 budget, followed by a press conference at 12:00 GMT. More than budget details, market participants are looking for any sign of plan to request a bailout program that could see the OMT bond buying program running. “While market pressure has intensified, and foreign political pressure for PM Rajoy to make the request has remained behind the scenes, we don’t think it has reached a breaking point for Spain to make an early request”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, stating that not requesting it should trigger a rise of Spanish yields and a sovereign credit downgrade to “non-investment grade” by Moody's. “This would force this risk-off further into Monday markets and open up more downside on EUR/USD as the market prices in a greater risk of ECB easing, even if they too may prove sluggish in delivering any large stimulus”, Pontoh added.

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