Euro faces Greek ‘fiscal cliff’ (Barcelona) - Once again, everything related with Greece seems to has a bigger component of uncertainty than any other country. Market participants were hoodwinked again yesterday, after EU finance ministers have kicked the can down the road after one more (and expected) fiasco out of the gathering in Brussels: the FX community will now have to wait until November 20 (or later) to know whether Greece will get the next tranche of the financial aid, worth up to €31.5 billion.

The panorama is even more unclear if we take into account the rising shortcircuits between the players involved in the negotiations: the IMF, the Greek government, Germany and the European Commission. As Geoffrey Yu, analyst at UBS puts it, “IMF Managing Director Lagarde insisted that the goal of returning Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2020 should remain, while Eurogroup Chair Juncker wants to give Greece until 2022 to reach that same target”. More on that is explained by the Financial Research team at Rabobank: “the report doesn’t discuss the specifics of where the additional financing will come from to plug the extra two years’ budget gap. As is often the way in Europe, this uncertainty is unlikely to be cleared up anytime soon”.

The immediate hurdle in the Greek drama would be today’s T-bill auction, followed by Friday’s €5 billion loan repayment, although analyst believe it will be rolled over without difficulties. Bet on!

… South seems the only direction

EUR/USD has quickly left behind the key support of 1.2700 overnight. The gloomy scenario in Greece plus rising yields in the Spanish borrowing costs do not bode well for the very near term of the euro. Of course, politicos have stepped in the arena and a mixed bag of comments and rumours would likely be hitting the wires during the upcoming sessions, casting even more doubts and confusion over the markets.

Karen Jones, expert at Commerzbank, assesses that the cross “charted an inside day yesterday, but today is already weaker. Last week the market broke down from a symmetrical triangle, which offers a downside measured target to 1.2483”. In line with the aforementioned, the Swiss bank UBS has now changed its outlook for EUR/USD to bearish from neutral, focusing on the key support at 1.2608, which would allow 1.2474 if breached.

FOMC minutes to dominate Wednesday

Euro docket will see France CPI and Portugal GDP figures for Q3, followed by industrial production in the bloc composite. Across the Atlantic, retail sales and producer prices will precede the FOMC minutes.