Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, Danske Bank and Westpac (Barcelona) - The euro is intensifying its upside on Thursday, trading closer to 1.2890 as risk appetite is dominating the markets. Positive result out of the Chinese manufacturing PMI has triggered the demand for riskier assets this early morning, accentuated later during the European morning, where manufacturing and services PMI indices in euro members have showed improvements, although still well into de the contraction territory.

Karen Jones, expert at the German lender Commerzbank, argues “EUR/USD has eroded the resistance line at 1.2830. This implies a deeper retracement towards the 55 day ma at 1.2908 where we would again look for signs of failure. While the latter caps, the 1.2661 current November low will remain in view”. Alternatively, the analyst assesses that a climb above 1.2908/60 would eclipse the wider bearish outlook, targeting then 1.3021/37

S.Roed-Frederiksen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, was expecting the PMI prints to be supportive of the upside in EUR, although he states that the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ in the US remains a key factor. “US fiscal cliff and ongoing talks about Greece continue to weigh on the euro and we do not expect risk sentiment to improve markedly before the fear of the fiscal cliff has been removed”, he concludes.

The research team at the Australian bank Westpac, suggests “Sustained EUR/USD topside is likely to remain elusive amid the unresolved fiscal cliff and a probably unsatisfying
EU/IMF truce on Greek funding/debt sustainability…Suspect Spain has almost approached the limits of market patience with regards to a request for formal assistance”. They are recommending selling the cross above 1.2900, or bounces post-deal in Greece.