Forex Flash: AU economy expected to have shed 10K jobs in Oct - Westpac (San Francisco) - Key event risk for AUD this Thursday in Asia lies in Australia’s seasonally adjusted monthly employment figures at 00:30 GMT, which could have potential implications for the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December decision on monetary policy.

According to Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, Westpac expects the Australian economy to have lost -10K jobs in October, with “Full-time jobs … likely to lead the decline,” he says in a research note. “We look for [an unemployment rate] rise to 5.5% in Oct from 5.4%, despite a lower participation rate. Market pricing for an RBA cut in December sits around 68%.”

Mr. Callow adds: “Australia’s headline jobs total has not registered consecutive monthly gains since April-May; we expect the sawtooth pattern to continue.”