Forex Flash: Possible ascending triangle in USD/JPY – Commerzbank (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank has taken a look at USD/JPY from a purely technical perspective.

She begins by noting that the pair is sidelined above 81.86/68, the bottom of the recent range and below key resistance at 83.12, the 2011-12 resistance line. Last week the market failed to overcome the 82.84 recent high and she feels that spot looks set to consolidate further. Jones has spotted an emerging triangle pattern on the chart which will complete on a close above 82.84. Nonetheless, the 83.12 level is tough near term resistance for the market and she feels spot could well hold here again.

Jones sees initial support at the recent low at 81.68 and below here would increase the risk of a deeper corrective set back to 80.63, the June high. Beyond some consolidation, Jones favours a break higher, and a move past 83.12 would target 84.19, the 2012 high en route to the 200 W MA at 85.05 where she is anticipating initial failure. Jones is currently long at 82.21 with a stop at 81.65 and a target of 85.00.

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