"Three key moments for the Fed happen next week. First up are a pair of Yellen appearances, which includes a speech titled “Economic Outlook” in front of the Economic Club of Washington (2 Dec), and an appearance on the economic outlook in front of the Senate’s Joint Economic Committee (3 Dec).
Yellen’s appearances will provide a platform for her to outline her thinking ahead of the all-important FOMC meeting, but all that’s required to keep 16 Dec fully priced in is for her to stay on-message. We will be looking for any discussion of the exchange rate, however, as DXY again continues to touch on its recent highs.
Later in the week we get the final NFP report ahead of the 16 December FOMC meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to hike the fed funds rate. The positive tone in the array of employment indicators suggests that the US labor market recovery is back on track, though the 271K surge in jobs growth in October is unlikely to be sustained going forward.
In November, TD expects the US economy to create a fairly healthy 219K jobs (consensus: 200k), underscoring that the labor market has regained its footing after earlier missteps.
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