Forex: EUR/USD ranges with eyes on Greece (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD rose steadily to 1.2739 high first before going into a plunging moment to 1.2698 low, with the 1.2700 psychological level protecting the pair from further losses. Since then, the market has been ranging at 1.2700/20 as investors look for strong headlines able to provoke volatility.

Ahead of the Eurogroup meeting tonight, the German Finance Ministry spokeswoman said they only have parts of the Troika report and that Greece made progress, but many issues are still to be addressed. Tonight's meeting is very unlikely to come up with a decision regarding the €31.5 aid tranche to Greece. Meanwhile, Greece will be auctioning €5B of Treasury bills tomorrow and a Greek debt agency official sounded confident of getting a full take up. Commerzbank analysts expect the Greek debt sustainability to be re-instated on paper by using new calculations to avoid dealing with the IMF and European bailout fund statutes that reject funding unsustainable debts.

“Break here (1.2700/1.2689) to signal resumption of broader downmove from 1.3138, through 90 day MA at 1.2650, towards 50% retracement of 1.2042/1.3170 July/Sep rally at 1.2606”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica. “Alternative scenario sees further consolidation above 1.2700, with strong barrier at 1.2780/1.2800, expected to cap rallies”, the analyst added.