Forex: EUR/USD holds downside after EMU confidence (Barcelona) - Ahead of the EMU Sentix Investor Confidence, the market went to test September-28 high, at 1.2959. Data improved in October, but less than expected, from -23.2 to -22.2 (consensus of -20.8).

Earlier, Germany saw its trade surplus widening and exports rising its pace in August. In Switzerland, the monthly and annualized CPI came in as expected, at +0.3% (from +0.3%) and -0.4% (from -0.5%) in September, as expected.

With a daily low printed at 1.2957, the EUR/USD is attempting to bounce on the data. After the German Industrial Production, the economic calendar becomes empty for the rest of the trading day as the US celebrates Columbus Day and Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day.

Last week's rally on latter days took out resistance at 1.3050 and introduced scope to re-challenge the 1.3173/77 band (recent high and the Fibonacci retracement/78.6% retracement of the move seen this year): “Last weeks price action constituted an outside week to the topside, when coupled with the fact the market remains under pinned by both its short term uptrend and 200 day ma at 1.2824/1.2725 – risk has shifted to the topside very near term”, wrote analyst Karen Jones.