Forex Flash: UK economy remains fragile and constrained – RBS (Barcelona) - According to the RBS Research Team, “There is considerable volatility in the main output components in Q4 and subsequent data releases/revisions could yet change the picture.” As of now, the available high-frequency official data and business surveys suggest broadly flat GDP in Q4.

The good news is that the UK now looks more likely to avoid a symbolic ‘triple-dip’ downturn. The bad news is that the underlying state of the economy remains fragile, constrained by domestic deleveraging and weak external demand. As such, “the RBS forecast is for GDP growth of just 0.9% in 2013.” The team notes.