The just released Italian Retail Sales report points to an annualized rebound from -3.2% to -1.0% in October, and a better than expected monthly change: +0.0% instead of -0.2% consensus. Italian wage inflation grew by 0.1% on the monthly basis in September, but eased from 1.6% to 1.4% on the annualized figure. The EMU released its private loans data, falling further from -0.6 to -0.8 in September (YoY). Money supply M3 eased from 2.8% to 2.7% on the yearly basis, and from 3.1% to 3.0% on the 3m basis.
“It should be noted that we are viewing the pattern more negatively it looks more like a potential top than a continuation pattern at this stage”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to targets at 1.2738 and 1.2605 (38.2% and 50% retracements) past a break of the 200-day MA. Resistance is at 1.3030/84 ahead of the more important 1.3140/80 zone.
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