Forex: EUR/USD tests 1.3000, capped at 1.3022 (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD is edging higher on Thurdsay, fully retracing yesterday's losses, and was able to regress to the 1.3000 mark, posting highs at 1.3022. The release of the surprising UK Q3 GDP triggered the last upside move. Then, the pair started a softening process to test the 1.3000 as support.

The just released Italian Retail Sales report points to an annualized rebound from -3.2% to -1.0% in October, and a better than expected monthly change: +0.0% instead of -0.2% consensus. Italian wage inflation grew by 0.1% on the monthly basis in September, but eased from 1.6% to 1.4% on the annualized figure. The EMU released its private loans data, falling further from -0.6 to -0.8 in September (YoY). Money supply M3 eased from 2.8% to 2.7% on the yearly basis, and from 3.1% to 3.0% on the 3m basis.

“It should be noted that we are viewing the pattern more negatively it looks more like a potential top than a continuation pattern at this stage”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to targets at 1.2738 and 1.2605 (38.2% and 50% retracements) past a break of the 200-day MA. Resistance is at 1.3030/84 ahead of the more important 1.3140/80 zone.

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