Lien adds: “A contraction greater than 1 percent could lead some people to believe that not only is the recovery losing momentum but the U.S. economy could be headed for a contraction. If retail sales meets expectations or comes in only slightly weaker, there could be a more nominal impact on the dollar. In the off chance that spending surprises to the upside by growing instead of falling in the month of May – that would be the big surprise.”
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