Forex Flash: GDP forecasts subject to downside risk post-AU BOGS data - NAB (San Francisco) - An Australian statistics bureau reported Tuesday that the Oz trade balance deteriorated in November to a deficit of $2.637bn. “Where does this leave us?” asks Rob Henderson, Chief Economist at National Australia Bank in a research note. “First, there has been a significant deterioration in the trade balance in the first two months of the December quarter, suggesting our expectation of a +0.1 percentage points contribution to Q4 GDP is at risk. This means our 0.3% (weak) GDP forecast is subject to downside risk.”