Forex Flash: NFP data to affect FX via the risk aversion channel - Commerzbank (Barcelona) - The “mother of all data publications” comes in today at 12:30 GMT. The US labor market report has been subject of serious speculation throughout the year as market participants looked for reasons for another round of Fed asset purchases (QE3), with the EUR-USD usually rising following surprisingly bad data and falling on positive data, with the exception of June data because of the previous decision of an extension of the Operation Twist programme in response to the disappointing economic recovery. “The likelihood of the announcement of further measures of quantitative easing already at the next meeting seemed low”, wrote analyst Thu Lan Nguyen, expecting the Fed and QE speculation to take a short breather for the time being. “We therefore see a high likelihood of today’s data affecting the FX markets via the risk aversion channel, i.e. a notably better than expected result is likely to improve general market sentiment thus putting pressure on USD as in times of rising risk appetite the USD in its role as a safe haven is less in demand with investors; while the reverse applies if the result disappoints”, Nguyen added.

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