Forex: GBP/USD consolidates below 1.61 ahead of UK data (San Francisco) - Since closing down around 0.3% Monday, GBP/USD has been operating within a tight range below the 1.61 mark, last at 1.6073, unchanged from its starting price. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at says that “only a clear break below 1.5990 [Jan 9 low] will confirm a stronger bearish tone, and further slides targeting then 1.5820 price zone.” Once below, a test of the 200-day EMA (today at 1.5950) looks likely. Bednarik identifies bullish targets at 1.6090, 1.6120 and 1.6150.

Today, a number of key U.K. economic reports are scheduled for release, including consumer and producer inflation data for December. The consensus forecast on CPI is for a 2.7% (y/y) rise, which is key event risk for GBP. The BoE Chairman Mervyn King is scheduled to give a speech at 10:00 GMT.