“We see more two-way risk from this ECB meeting than recently. While we see a 30% chance of a rate cut and/ or QE announcement, it is still unlikely until December.”
“This leaves rhetoric in the driver’s seat. Any language that keeps hope alive for December sees euro and rates lower, but Eurozone data has not deteriorated further since September, so Draghi has no new catalyst to increase dovishness. This leaves some pricing that could be disappointed if Draghi is too optimistic.”
“We see a 30% the ECB cuts this week and a 50/50 chance that comes in December.”
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