EUR… ready to rock? (Barcelona) - As markets are shrugging off the recent downgrade of France by agency Moody’s, the first risk event for the EUR/USD is about to be unwound today with the extraordinary gathering of the EU finance ministers, centered firmly on the Greek debt crisis. At least some good news was hitting the wires yesterday, improving the mood in euro bulls and prompting investors to pump the brakes, after which the EU announced that the likeliness of Greece getting financial aid worth €44 billion has grown bigger. Well, that rumor could well materialize today, if (and it’s a big ‘if’) the EU and the IMF come to an agreement regarding when the Greek debt should reach 120% of the GDP. While the EU maintains its deadline in 2022, a reluctant IMF is keeping the former 2020

Ahead of the aforementioned events, Strategist Axel Rudolph at Commerzbank argues that rallies in the cross should be well contained in the boundaries of the key level at 1.2900, where the 55-day moving average sits. He adds “the cross is revisiting the 200-day moving average at 1.2806 and could reach the 1.2825 11th October low and also the resistance line at 1.2853 before coming off again… to 1.2661 and the area around 1.2480”.

… Which ‘fiscal cliff’?

The specter of the so-called ‘fiscal-cliff’ in the US economy has lost part of its gloomy presence among investors since Friday, when an optimistic mood was evident between the US President B.Obama and the Congressional leaders. Positive comments that followed have extended the upbeat tone in risk appetite to the markets, markedly improving the risk-associated currencies/assets, in detriment of further inflows to safe havens, characteristic that prevailed in past sessions. However, there is still a fairly long way before we can see a solution to this matter, and although the path would surely meander around many unexpected obstacles, it is always better to face it with a more determined attitude.
The implications and back-and-forths in this matter would surely weight on the cross via the USD flows, although its preponderance has somehow waned recently.

… Ahead in the day, and Wednesday’s docket

Spanish auction of 12m and 18m Letras would test once more the investors’ confidence ahead of US Building Permits and Housing Starts, trying to follow the path after yesterday’s big improvement out of the Existing Home Sales. Chief B.Bernanke will give a speech later on during the North American session, carrying weight per se, as usual.

Ahead of the Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, an empty docket awaits for the euro zone, while the weekly report on the labor market and the preliminary manufacturing PMI prints will be released in the US.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.