Forex Flash: AUD/USD has lowest volatility since Feb. 2007 – Westpac (Barcelona) - The local Australian calendar highlights the Q3 capex (actual and planned) on Thursday November 29th. According to Sean Callow, a Global Strategist at Westpac, “The RBA will be watching this with interest yet it probably won’t be vital for their 4 December decision. This leaves plenty of trading sessions for AUD to chop around on US and European political headlines.”

“Moreover, the lowest implied volatility on the AUD/USD since Feb 2007 fits our ongoing neutral bias. The past week’s 1.0288 low did at least mark a slight range break but it was short-lived. The topside should be capped around 1.0460/80 as US politicians keep equities nervous though a deal on Greece might help AUD indirectly.” Callow adds.

Strong capital inflows to Asia imply support for the AUD on dips towards 1.0290/1.0300, both on what it tells us about investor expectations for Asian growth (reinforced by China Nov flash PMI today) and on diversification of rising USD reserves.