"TD expects the headline consumer price index to rise at a relatively decent 0.2% m/m pace in October, ending two consecutive months of declines. Higher energy (up 0.7% m/m) and food prices (up 0.3% m/m) should more than offset the more subdued tone in core consumer prices. On a year ago basis, TD’s forecast is for the pace of consumer price inflation to accelerate, rising to 0.1% y/y from the flat print the month before.
Core inflation, however, should remain somewhat subdued, eking out a fairly modest 0.1% m/m rise, with the annual pace of core inflation decelerating to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y. The overall tone of this report, however, should be broadly constructive, reflecting some stabilization in the inflationary backdrop as the past run-up in the dollar and lagged impact for the drop in energy prices run their course."
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