Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, UBS and Danske Bank (Barcelona) - The single currency continues to trade around the psychological support at 1.300o Friday, ahead of the US NFP due later. Prior surveys expect the US economy to add 150K jobs during December, a hair better than November’s reading at +146K.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at the German lender Commerzbank, comments, “EUR/USD’s sell off has reached its 2 month uptrend. We note the TD perfection set up on the 240-minute chart and we suspect that we will see an initial bounce from the 1.3020/00 vicinity”. The expert also remarks that any intraday attempt higher should be contained in the area of 1.3158/93 ahead of 1.3310

On the other hand, strategists Geoffrey Yu and Gareth Berry at UBS confirm the bank’s neutral outlook on the cross, arguing “The latest weakness suggests there is more downside in the near-term and the next support lies at 1.2985/09. Resistance is at 1.3191 ahead of 1.3308”.

With the view in today’s NFP, Senior Analyst Christin Tuxen at Danske Bank suggests “If our economists’ call for today’s employment report to deliver a better-than-expected payrolls figure proves correct, the focus in the FX markets could be directed towards a QE exit and towards the inflation and unemployment thresholds announced by the Fed for policy rates to eventually be raised. Hence a better-than-expected payroll report could weigh on EUR/USD, as Fed policy is set to become less accommodative as labour-market conditions improve”.