Forex: EUR/USD holds above 1.3200 ahead a high volatile Friday (San Francisco) - The Euro has closed the day at 1.3240 against the US Dollar following another rejection at the 1.3300 area. The EUR/USD is struggling to regain the 8-month highs zone but the pair was pressured by a waned risk appetite as positive US data failed to support sentiment in the face of the looming fiscal cliff.

But later on the session, Republican House Speaker John Boehner expressed optimism about reaching a budget deal with President Obama, in a conciliatory speech where Boehner said he would continue to work on a solution. The Speaker's words fueled stocks with all three major indexes closing higher.

The good news came from economic data with stronger-than-expected US GDP, Philly Fed and housing data. In the European side, recent S&P's upgrade to Greece from selective default to B-, brought additional support to the Euro.

The EUR/USD was supported at 1.3200 level and as Fan Yang from FXTimes says, "the market is at the cusp of bullish continuation." Yang points that the "the bullish structure is still there, although we lost some steam to the upside. Still without enough evidence of a reversal, the primary outlook remains bullish, unless there is a failure to push above the 1.3307 high combined with a break back below 1.3188."

The day ahead: The EUR/USD knocks the 1.3300 doors again

As BK's analyst Kathy Lien well said in a recent report, market expects "the volatility in the financial markets to increase over the next 24 hours but not because the world will come to an end." The reason will be the huge orders and adjustments in options, bonds and debt. "Instead, if there is an increase in volatility tomorrow, it will be because of Quadruple Witching and/or position adjustments ahead of year- end," points Lien. "Four times per year, contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) expire at the same time."

In this framework, investors must pay attention to movements on small sell off, erratic price actions, profit taking in both stocks and currencies markets. In addition, the recent Boehner's conciliatory tone could spur sentiment and make movements and swings wider.

But speaking about the EUR/USD and despite recent rejection from above 1.3300, the shared currency holds a positive tone versus the dollar in short-term charts. A break above 1.3307 (Dec 19 high) would open the doors for a rally toward 1.3385 as next target. However, repeated failure to break decisively above 1.3307 could put EUR/USD under pressure and a correction toward 1.3120 could not be dismissed.

According to the TD Securities team, the EUR is looking better bid ahead despite yesterday's toppish looking price action, but it would take a push above the 1.3306 high today to confirm the constructive trend. "But markets look to be entering consolidation mode as the holiday season approaches. Of course new developments on the fiscal cliff front could uproot these trends".

City Index's analyst Ashraf Laidi was one of the initial bullish experts on the unique currency, as he expects the "EUR/USD to rebound towards 1.32, followed by $1.33-34 nearing the end of December." Laidi states that "the ensuing reverse Head and Shoulder formation appearing in EUR/USD is a classic (and rare) bullish formation, with clear delineation of: i) required preceding sell-off; ii) isolated low, creating a left shoulder; iii) a renewed sell-off to create a bottom or a head; iv) subsequent peak, creating a right shoulder; and v) a straight neckline coinciding with trendline resistance."

"The theoretical target interpolated from the reverse H&S suggests $1.38-40 is viable in by end of Q1 2013," adds Laidi.

As for the fundamental day, it would be nice to pay attention to the Gross Domestic Product reports in the United Kingdom (09:30 GMT, 4:30 ET) and in Canada (13:30 GMT, 8:30 ET). Also take in count the US Durable Goods Orders, PCE data, Personal Spending (13:30 GMT, 8:30 ET), the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (14:55 GMT, 9:55 ET) and off course, the ongoing fiscal cliff talks.

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