“The 3-month moving average also rose by 1.1 points to 48.9, its highest level since March 2012”.
“The flash estimate of the euro area composite PMI was stronger than expected, increasing to 50.4 from 48.7 in June and marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase”.
“At the country level, the data for Germany and France improved and according to our calculations composite PMIs in the rest of the region increased by more than a point”.
“The broad-based improvement across countries and sectors points to the higher chance of a recovery, challenging our baseline of stagnant growth in H2”.
“The improvement in the PMI data is consistent with the recovery scenario confirmed by the ECB in its June projections. However, it might prove to be a new challenge as far as its forward guidance is concerned. We will elaborate on our expectations for the August ECB meeting in our ECB preview to be published early next week”.
“Stronger data challenge our no recovery scenario for the euro area. Today’s outcome is significant. It confirms that the early signs of stabilisation apparent in business cycle indicators in the past two months are now turning into what could be a nascent recovery”.
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