Forex Flash: EUR/USD could reach 1.4261 if goes above 1.3833 - Commerzbank (Barcelona) - With a weekly close above the 200 week ma and the 55 MONTH moving average, “we will need to adjust higher our forecast and outlook”: “The weekly close above 1.3564 introduces scope to 1.3833, the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the 2011-2012 move”, wrote analyst Karen Jones, adding that “the move on Friday does look a little over-stretched and we would allow for some retracement towards the 6 week accelerated uptrend at 1.3459 ahead of further gains”. Above 1.3833, the Commerzbank analyst would allow for a move to the 1.4261 2008-2013 downtrend in the slightly longer term.