Stephen Gallo, head of strategy at BMO, said recently that two of the upside risks facing the EUR during periods of distress for developing (or non-G7) market currencies will be from de-leveraging or forced repatriation flows on the one hand and the weight that comes into the USD from any “safe haven” shifts in capital flows into US Treasuries which depress yields on the other. Aggressive EUR bears should pay particular attention to the latter factor, as yields and yield-sensitivities remain a lynchpin for a whole range of factors at present, not least a significant portion of EUR weakness.
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