Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Danske Bank, Commerzbank, UBS and Rabobank (Barcelona) - The single currency is getting hammered in the European morning, against a backdrop of weaker EMU data and rising concerns regarding Spain and its much-talked bailout, echoing in yields dangerously closing to the 6% threshold. The cross has been falling from levels above 1.2910 at the beginning of the Asian session to lows below 1.2850 after the opening bell in London.

S.Holbek, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, assesses the EUR performance so far and suggests “With no significant data releases scheduled today, market sentiment is likely to remain subdued and hence we could see EUR/USD moving further down”.
K.Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, comments “we are beginning to suspect that the market has in fact topped recently at 1.3177 and the decline will extend back to…12624”, backing her analysis with technical studies. She concludes arguing that sellers would prevail while the market remains below 1.3050, opposed to strong resistance levels in the area of 1.3466/1.3541
G.Yu and G.Berry, analysts at UBS remain euro-neutral, suggesting, “A break below 1.2837 would suggest scope for deeper correction to 1.2758. Resistance is at 1.3003”.
J.Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, points to the developments in Spain as the key catalyst in the near term for the EUR, saying that “October promises to be a testing month for Spain and in this environment we see risk of pullbacks for EUR/USD towards the 1.2600 area. That said, with the fiscal cliff in the US nearing and on the back of the Fed’s very accommodative monetary policy we see any bouts of USD strength as likely to be short-lived and expect that EUR/USD will trend towards 1.3500 medium-term”.

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