Gold Forecast and News
Gold targets $4,700 on broad USD selling
Gold attracts strong buying interest at the start of the week, surging to a fresh record high near $4,700 per troy ounce. Markets turned more cautious after US President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European countries opposing his plan to acquire Greenland, a shift that helped support the precious metal.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,600 on Friday. Daily chart analysis shows the XAU/USD pair trading within a developing ascending wedge, indicating fading upside momentum and the risk of a bearish reversal if prices break below the lower trendline on strong volume.
The immediate resistance appears at the record high of $4,643, reached on January 14, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending wedge around $4,660. A break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the XAU/USD pair to the $4,700 level.
On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $4,549, followed by the lower ascending wedge boundary around $4,520.00. Further declines below the wedge would open the doors for the XAU/USD pair to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at $4,313.
Fundamental Overview
Market sentiment was further eased by reports that Israel and other Middle Eastern allies urged the US to hold off on any potential strike against Iran.
Gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, loses its shine as Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and policymakers’ concerns over sticky inflation.
Safe-haven Gold depreciates as risk sentiment improves after President Trump said he has no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite reported Justice Department indictment threats. Trump also indicated he could delay action on Iran while moving ahead with trade measures targeting critical minerals and AI chips.
Gold declines as US Dollar could strengthen on Fed caution
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground after registering modest gains in the previous session. The DXY is trading around 99.30 at the time of writing, limiting the downside of the dollar-denominated Gold.
The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. The data confirmed that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is holding up despite an extended period of high borrowing costs.
The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Retail Sales rose more than expected to $735.9 billion in November, up 0.6%, following a 0.1% contraction in October and beating market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot in November, with both headline and core measures reaching 3% year-over-year (YoY).
Morgan Stanley analysts delayed their expectations for rate cuts to June and September from January and April following Friday’s jobs report.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at the Midwest Economic Forecast Forum hosted online by the Wisconsin Bankers Association on Wednesday that the overall economy seems quite resilient and that he has seen less tariff pass-through than expected. Kashkari added that inflation is still too high but is moving the right way.
Fed Beige Book noted that US economic activity picked up at a "slight to modest pace" in most parts of the country since mid-November. "This marks an improvement over the last three report cycles, where a majority of Fed districts reported little change."
US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in December, below market expectations, while annual core inflation held at 2.6%, matching a four-year low. The data provided a clearer sign of easing inflation after earlier releases were skewed by shutdown effects. Meanwhile, CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month in December 2025, matching market expectations and repeating the rise seen in September. The annual inflation remains at 2.7% increase as expected.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Fed cut bets, geopolitical tensions underpin bullish impulse Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its positive performance this week, at some point hitting all-time tops just above the $4,640 mark per troy ounce. Since then, the yellow metal seems to have entered a corrective mood, attempting at the same time some consolidation in the upper end of the range.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD looks firm well above 1.1600
EUR/USD picked up a bid on Monday, pushing up toward the 1.1650 area in response to fresh weakness around the US Dollar, all following President Trump threats to escalate tariffs on eight European countries opposing his proposal to take Greenland. With US stock and bond markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, liquidity is likely to be thin.
GBP/USD reclaims 1.3400 and above
GBP/USD found its footing after a soft start to the week, edging slightly above 1.3400 on Monday. The Btitish Pound benefits from a weaker Greenback, as markets react to President Trump’s latest tariff threats against Europe over Greenland.
USD/JPY drops below 158.00 amid weak US Dollar, Japan Takaichi calls snap election
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.12% lower to near 157.85 during the European trading session on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) underperforms broadly, following the tariff announcement by the United States (US) on several European Union (EU) members and the United Kingdom (UK).
Gold targets $4,700 on broad USD selling
Gold attracts strong buying interest at the start of the week, surging to a fresh record high near $4,700 per troy ounce. Markets turned more cautious after US President Trump threatened tariffs on eight European countries opposing his plan to acquire Greenland, a shift that helped support the precious metal.
WTI holds steady above $59.00 as markets digest Iran tensions, Trump's tariff threats
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.30 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The WTI price holds steady amid easing tensions in Iran and wider risk-off sentiment. Traders brace for the American Petroleum Institute crude oil stockpiles report on Tuesday.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.