Gold Forecast and News
Gold yearns for acceptance above the $5,000 mark
Gold preserves 2% advance seen on Wednesday as buyers gather pace early Thursday. The US Dollar holds January Fed Minutes-led gains ahead of more US macro data. Gold needs a sustained break above the key $5,000 barrier; daily RSI stays bullish.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, preserving a bullish alignment. Price holds below the 21-day SMA at $5,001.04 but remains above the 50-day SMA at $4,688.83 and the longer baselines, keeping the broader bias upward. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits at 53 (neutral), reflecting steady momentum. Measured from the $5,597.89 high to the $4,401.99 low, the 50% retracement at $4,999.94 acts as immediate resistance.
A daily close above $4,999.94 would expose the 61.8% retracement at $5,141.05, where recovery attempts could stall. Failure to reclaim the 21-day SMA would leave the rebound vulnerable, bringing the 38.2% retracement at $4,858.82 into view, while the rising 100-day SMA at $4,393.61 underpins the medium-term trend.
Fundamental Overview
Gold stood tall on Wednesday, despite the solid recovery in the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields, fuelled by somewhat hawkish Minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) January monetary policy meeting.
The Minutes suggested that the Fed remains in no rush to cut interest rates, with several policymakers open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, others inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes.
However, the markets’ pricing for three 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cuts this year remained intact, which seems to have supported the non-yielding Gold.
The main catalyst behind Gold’s upswing was the return of haven demand due to renewed geopolitical tensions. Two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended without a breakthrough. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was dissatisfied with the outcome.
Meanwhile, CBS News reported, citing sources familiar with internal discussions, a potential US military strike on Iran could come as early as Saturday.
This comes after Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday that Tehran has agreed with the US 'on guiding principles' for the deal, following their Geneva talks.
Against this backdrop, Gold seems to continue its recent upside but the US Dollar could have an upper hand heading toward Friday’s US PCE inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.
The Greenback also draws support from the latest data released by the US Treasury Department, which showed a net inflow of $44.9 billion in Treasury International Capital (TIC) for December 2025. The data increased foreign appetite for US assets.
Next of note for Gold traders remains the US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales data and Fedspeak scheduled later in the North American session on Thursday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Metals remain vulnerable to broad market mood Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) started the week on a bullish note and climbed above $5,000 before declining sharply and erasing its weekly gains on Thursday, only to recover heading into the weekend.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD slumps below 1.1800 on hawkish Fed Minutes, eyes on ECB succession
The EUR/USD pair tumbles to a near two-week low around 1.1785 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Euro on hawkish FOMC minutes that revived speculation about potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated.
GBP/USD extends decline as weak jobs data bolsters BoE rate cut bets
The Pound Sterling continued to backslide under sustained pressure on Wednesday, following through after the UK employment report on Tuesday showed a labour market deteriorating faster than expected.
USD/JPY: Bulls retain control around 155.00 amiid USD strength
USD/JPY consolidates the previous day's strong gains to around 155.00 early Thursday, with the bias remaining in favor of bulls as worries about Japan's fiscal health and the upbeat market mood continue to undermine the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the FOMC Minutes showed that Fed officials remain split over the necessity and timing of further rate cuts amid concerns about inflation, which acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar and should support the currency pair.
Gold yearns for acceptance above the $5,000 mark
Gold preserves 2% advance seen on Wednesday as buyers gather pace early Thursday. The US Dollar holds January Fed Minutes-led gains ahead of more US macro data. Gold needs a sustained break above the key $5,000 barrier; daily RSI stays bullish.
WTI remains above $65.00 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions
West Texas Intermediate Oil price edges lower after registering 4.9% losses in the previous session, trading around $65.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday. Crude Oil prices could regain ground on potential supply risks amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.