GLOBAL BOND MARKETS
Technical Overview
Big picture
THEMES AFFECTING Bonds
iShares Global Utilities ETF - Daily Chart
iShares US Utilities ETF - Daily Chart
Bonds as related to other asset classes
Bond prices and bond yields are many times the drivers behind price movements in currencies and other asset classes. In this section, we aim to explain how those movements are being perceived and traded by our dedicated contributors and in-house analysts.
Utilities are big borrowers and their profits are enhanced by lower interest costs. Conversely, the utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Because of this interest-rate sensitivity, the Utilities Average is regarded by some as a leading indicator for the stock market as a whole.
Utilities are part of our Risk-On/Off indicators you can find by clicking here.
Bond prices and bond yields trend in opposite directions. This is important for understanding most of the analysis and news published on this page.
It's also important to know the underlying dynamic on why a bond's yield is rising
or falling: it can be based on interest rate expectations or it can be based on market sentiment -uncertainty- and a "flight to safety" to bonds
which are traditionally considered less risky.
The rate of change of interest rates, either the target rate or market rates,
is important because this causes either stocks or bonds become more attractive. When this happens prices will tend to trend as money flows from one vehicle to the
other until the new relationship is adequantely reflected in prices.
Bonds and stocks are always competing for investor money, and less so commodities. These
usually trend in opposite direction of bond prices (falling commodity prices usually produce higher bond prices, vice versa); therefore, commodities would trend in the same direction as interest rates.
US Treasuries explained
If you are trading USD based or quoted pairs, watch the US bond market since a movement in Treasury yields impacts the US dollar. The driver of many movements in Treasury yields are partly driven by comments from Fed officials, so pay close attention to any news coming from US monetary authorities. US stocks usually get a boost from rising bond prices (falling Treasury yields), specially in inflationary times. But if they don't, then it's worth looking for market sentiment and reasons why the equity markets appear to be taking a more cautious stance. US stocks prices can also rise with falling Treasury prices (with rising yields) during a deflationary environment. In this case stocks and interest rates rise together which spurs global demand for the US Dollar.
UK Gilts explained
Global bond prices tend to move in synchrony. But there are moments when a country's bond market experiences a sharper movement than other bonds markets. Sometimes it may be a currency movement: The Gilt is the 10-year benchmark in the UK fixed income market. It's correlation to the Sterling is usually positive and decoupling between both markets serves as an early alert that some Intermarket relationship has changed. Changes in foreign exchange prices can overwhelm relative return calculations for international investors buying Gilts as an investment. When stripped out the currency component, UK Gilts should still provide some return to investors otherwise other bond markets, Treasuries for instance, may become attractive.
It is also true that a prolonged trend in energy prices is also a factor to consider as it will affect inflation expectations and thereby BOE's monetary policies.
Latest Latest Bonds & Interest Rates Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0850 after US housing data
EUR/USD trades in negative territory at around 1.0850 in the early American session on Tuesday. The US Dollar preserves its strength following the upbeat housing data and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction. The two-day Fed meeting goes underway on Tuesday.
GBP/USD recovers modestly from two-week lows, trades near 1.2700
GBP/USD staged a modest rebound after touching its lowest level in two weeks below 1.2700 on Tuesday. The cautious market mood helps the US Dollar hold its ground and limits the pair's upside as markets gear up for the Fed and the BoE policy meetings.
USD/JPY extends rally beyond 150.00 as markets assess BoJ decisions
USD/JPY preserves its bullish momentum after breaking above 150.00 with the 'sell the fact' reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to end negative interest rates. In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda said they will consider options for easing broadly, including ones used in the past if needed.
Gold stays in daily range near $2,160
Gold fluctuates in a narrow band at around $2,160 for the second consecutive day on Tuesday. Ahead of the Fed's policy announcements, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield moves sideways near 4.3% and limits's XAU/USD's volatility.
WTI stretches lower as Russia increases supplies, trades around $81.80
WTI price corrects after reaching a four-month high of $82.46 marked on Monday. Russia has increased its exports in reaction to Ukrainian attacks on the nation's oil infrastructure. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser rejected the idea of phasing out fossil fuels, describing it as a fantasy.