Very premature to even think about pausing – this is a short version of the hawkish message by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's message on Wednesday. The jobs report vindicates his words. It gives the dollar fresh wings and further hits US stocks. The good news for the economy is bad news for equities.
NFP beats expectaions for sixth straight month in October, wage inflation softens
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 261,000 in October, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading came in much higher than the market expectation of 200,000. Additionally, September's reading got revised higher to 315,000 from 263,000.
US jobs report post-release checklist – November 3rd, 2022
|NFP Actual, Consensus and Deviation||Positive||The US economy added 261K K jobs in July, much better than the 200K expected.|
|NFP Revisions||Positive||NFP October report revised to 315K from 263K.|
U3 unemployment rate slightly ingreased to 3.7%, a bit higher than expected, the U6 underemployment came as expected, with 6.8%.
|Labor Force Participation Rate||Negative||The share of people in the workforce has slightly decreased to 62.32.|
|Average Hourly Earnings||Negative||Montly change in wages remained at 34.5%, while yearly wages remained around 5% 5%.|
OCTOBER US JOBS REPORT PREVIEW
Historically, how impactful has the US jobs report been on gold’s valuation? In this article, we present results from a study in which we analyzed the XAUUSD pair's reaction to the previous 27 NFP prints*.
US jobs report pre-release checklist – November 3rd, 2022
|Previous Non-Farm Payrolls||Positive||The US economy added 263K jobs in July, slightly better than the 250K expected.|
|Challenger Job Cuts||Neutral||The number of corporate layoffs slightly increased in September to 33.843K, surging above 30K.|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Negative||Three of the last five weekly unemployment claims releases have been worse than expected, with the week ending on October 28th seeing 217K first-time claimers.|
|Continuing Jobless Claims||Negative||The number of employment seekers is now around 1.485M, still close to all-time lows.|
|ISM Services PMI||Positive||The ISM Services PMI came slightly worst than expected with 54.5.|
|ISM Manufacturing PMI||Positive||The employment sub-index for the main survey in the US manufacturing sector came at 50.2, better than the 50 expected.|
|University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index||Positive||UMich survey showed some improvement on October: Is it a turning point or will it remain on this firm downtrend?|
|Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index||Negative|
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in October after back-to-back monthly gains. The Index now stands at 102.5 (1985=100), down from 107.8 in September.
|ADP Employment Report||Positive||US private-sector employment report cames worst than expected (195K) with 239K in October.|
|JOLTS Job Openings||Negative||The job openings number falls below 10.053M job offers in October.|
SEPTEMBER US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Winter is not coming – at least not to America's labor market, which remains strong, posting another impressive increase in jobs last month. An increase of 263K is just above 250K seen on the economic calendar and just under the "whisper number" which was around 280K. Leading indicators came out above expectations.
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 263,000 in September, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed August's increase of 315,000 and came in better than the market expectation of 250,000.
AUGUST US JOBS REPORT REVIEW
Five in a row – Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations for a fifth consecutive month, showing the resilience of the US economy. The knee-jerk dollar decline is related to a small miss in wage data, but nothing substantial.
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 315,000 in August, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed July's increase of 526,000 (revised from 528,000) and came in slightly better than the market expectation of 300,000.
JULY US JOBS REPORT review
Help wanted, and much more of it – that is what the Nonfarm Payrolls report tells markets about the state of the hiring in America. Contrary to most Nonfarm Payrolls reports, the verdict on this one is clear – a monster report.
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 528,000 in July, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed June's increase of 398,000 (revised from 372,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 250,000. The Unemployment Rate edged lower to 3.5%.
JUNE US JOBS REPORT Review
Good news is bad news – for stocks, but not the dollar, and more may be in store. The US has reported another impressive month of job growth, 372,000 in June, on top of only a minor downward revision of 6,000 for May.
Nonfarm Payrolls in the US rose by 372,000 in June, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading followed May's increase of 384,000 (revised from 390,000) and came in better than the market expectation of 268,000.
May US JOBS REPORT Review
The US economy added 390,000 jobs in May, according to the latest Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday. That was above the median economist forecast for a gain of 325,000 jobs, though slightly lower versus April's 436,000 gain (revised up from 428,000).
Two months of weaker than expected wage increases in a row – is the most important thing for the Federal Reserve, which is fighting inflation. The rest is less important. The US gained 390,000 jobs in May, better than 328,000 expected, but on top of downward revisions.
April US JOBS REPORT Review
The US economy added 428,000 jobs in April, according to the latest Non-farm Payrolls report released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday. That was a little above the median economist forecast for a gain of 391,000 jobs, and exactly in line with pace of jobs gains in March (which was revised lower to 428,000 from 431,000).
Everybody gets a raise – whether it is the Great Resignation or not-so-great factors, Americans' salaries are rising on a broad base. The headline Average Hourly Earnings MoM has missed with only 0.3% vs. 0.4%. However, it came on top of an upward revision to last month's figure – 0.5% reported now vs. 0.4% in the original publication.
March US JOBS REPORT Review
America is hiring – while the headline Nonfarm Payrolls figure missed estimates with 431,000 vs. 490,000 projected, revisions add 95,000, more than compensating for the marginally worse than projected figure. In comparison to the pre-pandemic levels of around 200,000 per month, the labor market is extremely healthy.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 431,000 in March, below the median economist forecast for a 490,000 rise, data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. However, the February Non-Farm Payrolls number received a hefty 72,000 upwards revision to 750,000 from 678,000, more than making up for the 59,000 miss on the March headline expected number.
February US JOBS REPORT Review
As if the dollar needs another boost – February's Nonfarm Payrolls have confirmed that the US labor market is on fire. The economy is benefiting from the retreat of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, which further cements the first pandemic-era rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The war will not stop the central bank.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 678K in February, well above the median economist forecast for a 400K rise, data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. January's NFP number also saw a small upwards revision to 481K from 467K.