USD/JPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY goes on a roller-coaster ride prompted by geopolitical risk
USD/JPY whipsaws lower and then higher on alternating risk-on risk-off caused by Middle East tensions. Governor Ueda talks about defending the Yen from further weakness and currency-induced imported inflation. USD/JPY price chart shows bearish Hanging Man forming, boding ill for future price action.
Latest Japanese Yen News
USD/JPY Technical Overview
USD/JPY looks like it may be positing a bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern on Friday (circled) assuming the close does not differ markedly from the current market price.
If the Hanging Man completes and is followed by a bearish candlestick on Monday it will confirm a short-term bearish reversal pattern and indicate lower prices are likely to follow.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
A Measured Move price pattern, composed of three waves, commonly labeled A, B and C has been unfolding since the start of March.
The general rule with these patterns is that the end of wave C can be estimated as occurring where wave C is equal in length to wave A, or a Fibonacci ratio of wave A. At the very least C normally extends to a 0.618 ratio of A.
USD/JPY has already reached the conservative estimate for the end of wave C at the Fib. 0.618 extension of A, at 154.20. This means there is a possibility C may have reached its limit and the Measured Move could be complete.
Once the Measured Move completes it is usually followed by a reversal, which in this case means a decline.
If the end of C equals A, however, it still has higher to go and could reach roughly 156.11.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, suggesting the risk of a pullback is on the horizon. The advice is for bullish traders with a medium-term outlook to not add to their positions. If RSI exits overbought it may be a sign USD/JPY is pulling back.
A break above the 154.78 high could indicate a continuation of the uptrend to the next target at the more 156.11 optimistic end of wave C.
Alternatively, further weakness could lead to a correction back to support at the top of wave A, at 151.96.
Fundamental Overview
USD/JPY is trading in the 154.50s on Friday after declining to a low for the day in the 153.00s on the back of a spike in safe-haven demand that disproportionately favored the Japanese Yen (JPY).
An escalation in Middle East tensions, triggered a flight to safety overnight after news of bomb explosions in Iran. The attacks were thought to be orchestrated by Israel in retaliation for the drone armada sent by Iran on April 13.
Although the US Dollar benefited from the flight to safety, JPY gained more from the shift in sentiment, pushing down USD/JPY which expresses the number of Japanese Yen purchasable with one US Dollar.
The pair subsequently recovered as tensions eased, however, and a senior Iranian official reportedly stated Iran has no immediate plans to retaliate, according to Reuters.
Inflation ticks lower but Ueda adopts hawkish tone
On the data front, the Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 2.7% year-over-year, compared to a 2.8% rise in February, according to the Japan Statistics Bureau.
Despite the decline in inflation observed in the data, however, the Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Kazuo Ueda issued hawkish rhetoric supporting the Japanese Yen. Ueda said the central bank might consider raising interest rates again if significant declines in the Yen caused currency-related inflation, according to Reuters.
USD/JPY Big Picture
USD/JPY Bullish Themes
USD/JPY Bearish Themes
Latest JPY Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
USD/JPY goes on a roller-coaster ride prompted by geopolitical risk
USD/JPY whipsaws lower and then higher on alternating risk-on risk-off caused by Middle East tensions. Governor Ueda talks about defending the Yen from further weakness and currency-induced imported inflation. USD/JPY price chart shows bearish Hanging Man forming, boding ill for future price action.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Oil steady around weekly low while markets are unwinding risk premium over tension in Middle East
Oil turns flat for this Friday with markets writing off Middle Eastern tensions during APAC session. WTI Oil prices retreat from $85.00, while Brent dips below $90. The US Dollar Index eases as well on a turnaround from safe haven inflows earlier on the back of headlines.
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USD/JPY YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/JPY move this year? Our experts make a USD/JPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.
USD/JPY FORECAST 2024
The Japanese Yen could receive support from the BoJ if it indicates a shift toward ending its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, potentially through a rate hike that would mark the end of seven years of negative rates. Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Hino offered some comments about it in December. Rumors and speculations in that direction would trigger momentum for the Yen. Read more details about the forecast.
The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan led the pair to test the multi-decade high near 152.00.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR USD/JPY
There is a possibility that the BoJ might end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) by raising the key rate to 0.00% in 2024. Some analysts anticipate the eventual end of YCC by January, while others believe it is more likely to occur during the second quarter. A significant challenge for the BoJ is to exit from NIRP without disrupting the economy.
Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized that any move will be carefully calculated, and the central bank will likely prepare the market for a change. This scenario is more likely to materialize if inflation in Japan remains above 3%.
Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.
BOJ Official Website and on Twitter
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Kazuo Ueda
Kazuo Ueda is the 32nd and current Governor of the Bank of Japan. He is a professor and the dean of the business department at Kyoritsu Women's University in Tokyo and the external director at JGC Holdings Corp, an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. He was not even considered a dark-horse candidate. Ueda wasn’t really on their radar because the BOJ governor job has traditionally been assumed by a long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrat or central bank official.
Ueda on Wikipedia's Profile
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the United States and the United Kingdom affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.